Nvidia stocks: Forecasting and analysis of the dip
By Paul Reid
Nvidia stock (NVDA) should be on your trading watchlist. The recent US export ban on Nvidia’s H20 AI chips to China has created significant uncertainty, affecting revenue forecasts and market sentiment. For traders and investors tracking Nvidia stocks, combining the latest developments, circulating rumors, and technical indicators is the only way to navigate the current volatility.
How the US export ban is affecting Nvidia stocks
The US government’s indefinite licensing requirement for Nvidia’s H20 chip exports to China has forced the company to take a $5.5 billion charge related to unsold inventory and contractual obligations. This news sent Nvidia stocks tumbling 6% in after-hours trading. The H20 chip was expected to bring in $12 to $15 billion in revenue this year, with China representing a significant portion of that market. The ban not only disrupts Nvidia’s revenue stream but also highlights the growing risks Nvidia stocks face amid escalating US-China tech tensions.
Sentiment driving volatility in Nvidia stocks
Beyond the official news, Nvidia stocks have been buffeted by rumors that traders should monitor. One story involves Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s private dinner at Mar-a-Lago with President Donald Trump. Some speculate this meeting influenced the temporary easing of export restrictions earlier this year. With Huang allegedly promising to build AI data centers in the US in exchange for regulatory relief. While unconfirmed, such stories add an element of uncertainty that often fuels volatility in Nvidia stocks.
Another rumor concerns a burgeoning black market for Nvidia GPUs, especially the H20 chip, in Asia and the Middle East. Recent arrests in Singapore for smuggling Nvidia hardware into China lend some credibility to these whispers. This grey-market activity could offset the impact of official export bans but raises concerns about sustaining Nvidia’s supply chain and revenue from China.
Technical analysis of Nvidia stocks: Key levels and indicators
From a technical standpoint, Nvidia stocks trade around $112.20, below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which stand near $118.89 and $126.44. This indicates a bearish trend in the short to medium term.
Momentum indicators like the MACD suggest a negative, signaling downward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 49, showing no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. The immediate resistance level is around $114.33, and failure to break above this could lead to a retest of firm support near $97.64.
Trading volume remains below average, suggesting cautious investor sentiment as traders await Nvidia’s earnings report on May 28, 2025.
Trading strategies for Nvidia stocks amid uncertainty
For traders focused on Nvidia stocks, the current environment calls for a balanced approach. Short-term bearish traders might consider selling at rallies peaks near resistance levels with tight stop losses to manage risk.
Long-term investors may view recent price weakness as a buying opportunity, betting on Nvidia’s continued dominance in AI hardware and consequent easing of geopolitical tensions.
Options traders could use protective puts ahead of earnings to hedge downside risk or speculate on a rebound with call options tied to the upcoming Blackwell GPU launch.
What’s next for Nvidia stocks: Key catalysts to monitor
Looking ahead, Nvidia stocks will be heavily influenced by several factors. The rollout of new US tariffs in April 2025 and potential Chinese retaliatory measures could further affect market sentiment. Traders should also watch for signs of increased smuggling activity that might undermine export controls. Nvidia’s product pipeline, especially the adoption of Blackwell GPUs and partnerships like CoreWeave, could provide positive catalysts for the stock later this year.
Conclusion: Navigating Nvidia stocks in 2025
Nvidia stocks are currently caught in a volatile mix of regulatory challenges, geopolitical tensions, and market speculation. Whenever NVDA seems unpredictable, it’s best to slow down and take a breath. Rather than risking your capital, shift to a risk-free demo account and experiment with alternative approaches. This will allow you to build confidence and learn how this tech giant is developing, without the pressure of potential losses.
While the export ban on H20 chips and the associated $5.5 billion charge have dampened sentiment and pressured the stock price, Nvidia’s leadership in AI innovation offers a firm foundation for long-term growth.
NVDA traders and investors should stay current on regulatory developments, rumors, and technical signals to position themselves effectively in this dynamic environment. Improve your timing and capture key trades faster by using a mobile trading app. With live updates and notifications right at your fingertips, you'll always be in the NVDA loop, ready to act swiftly from anywhere.
If you want to stay ahead in trading Nvidia stock moves, monitor upcoming earnings reports and new product launches, which could significantly influence market direction and technical trends.
And, as always, make sure the Exness blog homepage is in your browser ‘favorites’ to get future Nvidia news and speculations, along with detailed analyses on other stocks, currencies, and commodities that give you a head start in predicting market movements.
This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Author:
Paul Reid
Paul Reid is a financial journalist dedicated to uncovering hidden fundamental connections that can give traders an advantage. Focusing primarily on the stock market, Paul's instincts for identifying major company shifts is well established from following the financial markets for over a decade.